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On methods - What do historians think about the validity of
As a result, my read of Cliodynamics is that it has the stink of 'technical analysis for history'. However, I also see Turchin's work has been fairly widely published, and I'm curious if I'm misinterpreting aspects of it.
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Is Cliodynamics accepted in the Historical community?
Cliodynamics fits more into a Russian tradition of grand mathematical theories of history than into the historical sciences in other parts of the world. Historians and archaeologists have engaged …
Cliodynamics - Wikipedia
Critics of cliodynamics argue that the complex social formations of the past cannot and should not be reduced to quantifiable, analyzable points in phase space, for doing so overlooks each historical society's particular circumstances and dynamics. Many historians and social scientists contend that there are no generalisable causal factors that can explain large numbers of cases, and that historical investigation should focus on the unique trajectories through phase space of …
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Cliodynamics and the Dangers of …
Jan 4, 2021 · Success in cliodynamics means correctly prophesying when nations will fall to dictatorship, when wars and disease will emerge, and when new technologies will be …
Cliodynamics is Not “Cyclical History” - Peter Turchin
Sep 18, 2020 · “Cyclical history” suffers from two problems. First, mechanisms producing cycles are either entirely missing, or inadequately specified. There is almost never an explicit mathematical model that would clarify these …
At the heart of the debate are two opposing views of history. Nineteenth century thinkers, such as Leo Tolstoy and Carl von Clausewitz (see Gaddis, this volume), believed that historical …
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10. Toward Cliodynamics: an Analytical, Predictive Science of …
An analytical, predictive history, or cliodynamics, is eminently possible. Introduction Philosophers have long debated whether history can be a science in the same sense that physics and …
Cliodynamics: History as Science - Peter Turchin
Cliodynamics (from Clio, the muse of history, and dynamics, the study of why things change with time) is the new transdisciplinary area of research at the intersection of historical macrosociology, economic history/cliometrics, …
Cliodynamics, or the study of historical processes
Nov 4, 2022 · Cliodynamics is a field which very existence is controversial. Among all subdisciplines of cultural evolution, “history as a science” is the only one that consistently draw …
What are the main criticisms of Cliodynamics methodology?
Cliodynamics, a field that applies quantitative methods to historical data to understand the dynamics of societies, faces several criticisms regarding its methodology. These criticisms …
Cliodynamics: can science decode the …
Aug 16, 2012 · Despite a common misconception, the cliodynamics approach is not to argue by analogy with past events. This is an incorrect way of learning lessons from …
Elites, political disintegration, and ‘cliodynamics’ - Resilience
Jul 5, 2023 · When Turchin was profiled in The Atlantic a while ago, he felt the need to write a long response on the Cliodynamics blog identifying ways in which he felt he had been …
Can history be used to predict the future? Some experts say it can
May 26, 2022 · Is the war in Ukraine evidence that history repeats? The idea that history is circular is called Cliodynamics and it's currently in vogue with many commentators on …
Cliodynamics: Unveiling the Hidden Patterns of Human History
Jul 3, 2023 · The field of Cliodynamics encounters substantial methodological hurdles, which critics frequently emphasize. Historical data is frequently insufficient, incomplete, or biased, …
Mathematicians Predict the Future With Data From the Past
Apr 10, 2013 · Thinkers from Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel to Oswald Spengler to Leo Tolstoy tried to develop cyclic theories of history that could also predict the future. Austrian …
History and Theory - Wiley Online Library
May 9, 2022 · The core criticism is that the models are fairly ad hoc and that a large range of similar approaches would fit the data equally well and lead to entirely different results.
Toward Cliodynamics – an Analytical, Predictive Science of History
Mar 31, 2011 · While cliometrics was a paradigm based on neoclassical theory and econometric methods, cliodynamics is a research agenda founded in non-neoclassical theoretical …
Cliodynamics: Predictive Modeling in History - Part 1
Jul 27, 2023 · Dive into cliodynamics & Turchin's predictive historical models. Explore determinism vs. randomness in history.
Arise 'cliodynamics' - Nature
Jul 2, 2008 · More than 200 explanations have been proposed 1, but there is no consensus about which explanations are plausible and which should be rejected. This situation is as risible as if, …
Cliodynamics, meanwhile, will develop unifying theories and test them with data generated by history, archaeology and specialized disciplines such as numismatics (the study of ancient …
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