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    Rare Earth hypothesis - Wikipedia

    The Rare Earth hypothesis argues that the evolution of biological complexity anywhere in the universe requires the coincidence of a large number of fortuitous circumstances, including, among others, a galactic habitable zone; a central star and planetary system having the requisite character (i.e. a circumstellar habitable zone); a terrestrial planet of the right mass; the advantage of one or more gas giant guardians like Jupiter and possibl…

    The Rare Earth hypothesis argues that the evolution of biological complexity anywhere in the universe requires the coincidence of a large number of fortuitous circumstances, including, among others, a galactic habitable zone; a central star and planetary system having the requisite character (i.e. a circumstellar habitable zone); a terrestrial planet of the right mass; the advantage of one or more gas giant guardians like Jupiter and possibly a large natural satellite to shield the planet from frequent impact events; conditions needed to ensure the planet has a magnetosphere and plate tectonics; a chemistry similar to that present in the Earth's lithosphere, atmosphere, and oceans; the influence of periodic "evolutionary pumps" such as massive glaciations and bolide impacts; and whatever factors may have led to the emergence of eukaryotic cells, sexual reproduction, and the Cambrian explosion of animal, plant, and fungi phyla. The evolution of human beings and of human intelligence may have required yet further specific events and circumstances, all of which are extremely unlikely to have happened were it not for the Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event 66 million years ago removing dinosaurs as the dominan…

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    In planetary astronomy and astrobiology, the Rare Earth hypothesis argues that the origin of life and the evolution of biological complexity, such as sexually reproducing, multicellular organisms on Earth, and subsequently human intelligence, required an improbable combination of astrophysical and geological events and circumstances. According to the hypothesis, complex extraterrestrial life is an improbable phenomenon and likely to be rare throughout the universe as a whole. The term "Rare Earth" originates from Rare Earth: Why Complex Life Is Uncommon in the Universe (2000), a book by Peter Ward, a geologist and paleontologist, and Donald E. Brownlee, an astronomer and astrobiologist, both faculty members at the University of Washington.

    In the 1970s and 1980s, Carl Sagan and Frank Drake, among others, argued that Earth is a typical rocky planet in a typical planetary system, located in a non-exceptional region of a common barred spiral galaxy. From the principle of mediocrity (extended from the Copernican principle), they argued that the evolution of life on Earth, including human beings, was also typical, and therefore that the universe teems with complex life. Ward and Brownlee argue that planets, planetary systems, and galactic regions that are as accommodating for complex life as are the Earth, the Solar System, and our own galactic region are not typical at all but actually exceedingly rare.

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    There is no reliable or reproducible evidence that extraterrestrial organisms of any kind have visited Earth. No transmissions or evidence of intelligent extraterrestrial life have been detected or observed anywhere other than Earth in the Universe. This runs counter to the knowledge that the Universe is filled with a very large number of planets, some of which likely hold the conditions hospitable for life. Life typically expands until it fills all available niches. These contradictory facts form the basis for the Fermi paradox, of which the Rare Earth hypothesis is one proposed solution.

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    The following discussion is adapted from Cramer. The Rare Earth equation is Ward and Brownlee's riposte to the Drake equation. It calculates , the number of Earth-like planets in the Milky Way having complex life forms, as:

    where:
    • N* is the number of stars in the Milky Way. This number is not well-estimated, because the Milky Way's mass is not well estimated, with little information about the number of small stars. N* is at least 100 billion, and may be as high as 500 billion, if there are many low visibility stars.
    • is the average number of planets in a star's habitable zone. This zone is fairly narrow, being constrained by the requirement that the average planetary temperature be consistent with water remaining liquid throughout the time required for complex life to evolve. Thus, =1 is a likely upper bound.
    We assume . The Rare Earth hypothesis can then be viewed as asserting that the product of the other nine Rare Earth equation factors listed below, which are all fractions, is no greater than 10 and could plausibly be as small as 10 . In the latter case, could be as small as 0 or 1. Ward and Brownlee do not actually calculate the value of , because the numerical values of quite a few of the factors below can only be conjectured. They cannot be estimated simply because we have but one data point: the Earth, a rocky planet orbiting a G2 star in a quiet suburb of a large barred spiral galaxy, and the home of the only intelligent species we know; namely, ourselves.
    • is the fraction of stars in the galactic habitable zone (Ward, Brownlee, and Gonzalez estimate this factor as 0.1 ).
    • is the fraction of stars in the Milky Way with planets.
    • is the fraction of planets that are rocky ("metallic") rather than gaseous.
    • is the fraction of habitable planets where microbial life arises. Ward and Brownlee believe this fraction is unlikely to be small.
    • is the fraction of planets where complex life evolves. For 80% of the time since microbial life first appeared on the Earth, there was only bacterial life. Hence Ward and Brownlee argue that this fraction may be small.
    • is the fraction of the total lifespan of a planet during which complex life is present. Complex life cannot endure indefinitely, because the energy put out by the sort of star that allows complex life to emerge gradually rises, and the central star eventually becomes a red giant, engulfing all planets in the planetary habitable zone. Also, given enough time, a catastrophic extinction of all complex life becomes ever more likely.

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    Writers who support the Rare Earth hypothesis:
    Stuart Ross Taylor, a specialist on the Solar System, firmly believed in the hypothesis. Taylor concluded that the Solar System is probably unusual, because it resulted from so many chance factors and events.
    • Stephen Webb, a physicist, mainly presents and rejects candidate solutions for the Fermi paradox. The Rare Earth hypothesis emerges as one of the few solutions left standing by the end of the book
    Simon Conway Morris, a paleontologist, endorses the Rare Earth hypothesis in chapter 5 of his Life's Solution: Inevitable Humans in a Lonely Universe, and cites Ward and Brownlee's book with approval.
    John D. Barrow and Frank J. Tipler, cosmologists, vigorously defend the hypothesis that humans are likely to be the only intelligent life in the Milky Way, and perhaps the entire universe. But this hypothesis is not central to their book The Anthropic Cosmological Principle, a thorough study of the anthropic principle and of how the laws of physics are peculiarly suited to enable the emergence of complexity in nature.
    Ray Kurzweil, a computer pioneer and self-proclaimed Singularitarian, argues in his 2005 book The Singularity Is Near that the coming Singularity requires that Earth be the first planet on which sapient, technology-using life evolved. Although other Earth-like planets could exist, Earth must be the most evolutionarily advanced, because otherwise we would have seen evidence that another culture had experienced the Singularity and expanded to harness the full computational capacity of the physical universe.
    John Gribbin, a prolific science writer, defends the hypothesis in Alone in the Universe: Why our planet is unique (2011).
    Michael H. Hart, an astrophysicist who proposed a narrow habitable zone based on climate studies, edited the influential 1982 book Extraterrestrials: Where are They and authored one of its chapters "Atmospheric Evolution, the Drake Equation and DNA: Sparse Life in an Infinite Universe".
    • Marc J. Defant, professor of geochemistry and volcanology, elaborated on several aspects of the rare Earth hypothesis in his TEDx talk entitled: Why We are Alone in the Galaxy. He also wrote in his book in 1998: "I do not believe that we were the destined outcome of evolution. In fact, we are probably the result of an incredible number of chance circumstances (one example is the meteorite impact at the end of the Cretaceous which probably destroyed the dinosaurs and led to mammal domination). The coincidental nature of our evolution should be clear from this book. I might even contend that so many "coincidences" had to take place during the history of the universe, that intelligent life on this planet may be the only life in our universe. I do not mean to suggest that we must have been "created." I mean to say that maybe there is not as much chance of finding life in our galaxy or universe as some would have us believe. We may be it."
    Brian Cox, physicist and popular science celebrity confesses his support for the hypothesis in his 2014 BBC production of the Human Universe.
    Richard Dawkins, evolutionary biologist, notes the Fermi paradox in his book, The Greatest Show on Earth, while discussing how life first evolved on Earth. Although we do not yet know the precise process for how life first began on Earth, Dawkins's view is that it is an implausible theory (i.e., improbable) given we have not encountered any evidence for life existing elsewhere in the universe. He concludes that life is probably very rare throughout the universe.

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